In the very long term, technological society will need to implement a basic income, as soon as full employment becomes untenable. Basic income (BI) is an income paid to all people, with no conditions. Alaska already has a small one, derived from its oil wealth. In the long term, however, full employment will be impossible due to the need for ongoing, intensive, and traditionally unpaid training.
Today, I’m not going to talk about basic income, because we’re probably a couple of decades before society absolutely needs one, and even farther away from one being implemented, because of the monumental political hurdles such an effort would encounter. Instead, I’m going to talk about right now– January 7, 2013– and something we need to do in order to maintain our capacity to innovate. I will address something that society ought to do in order to prevent a pointless and extreme destruction of human capital.
Peter Thiel has created a program (“20 Under 20″) that pays high-potential young people to skip college, but the entry-level grunt work most people spend the first few years of their careers on is, in my opinion, much more damaging, especially given its indefinite duration. (I don’t think undergraduate college is that damaging at all, but that’s another debate.) There is some busywork in college, and there are a few (but they’re very rare) incompetent professors, but more creativity is lost during the typical workplace’s years-long dues-paying period, which habituates people to subordination, than to any educational program. I do not intend to say that there aren’t problems with schools, but the institutions for which the schools prepare people are worse. At least grading in school is fair. A professor as corrupt and partial in grading as the typical corporate manager would be fired– and professors don’t get fired often.
In terms of expected value (that is, the average performance one would observe given an indefinite number of attempts) the market rewards creativity, which is insubordinate. However, when it comes to personal income, expectancy is completely meaningless, at least for us poors who need a month-to-month income to pay rent. Most people would rather have a guaranteed $100,000 per year than a 1-in-1000 shot (every year) at $500 million, with a 99.9% chance of no income, even though the latter deal has more expectancy in it. Risk-adjusted, people of average means are rewarded for taking stable jobs, which often require subordination.
Technically speaking, people are paid for work, not subordination, but the process that exists to evaluate the work is so corrupt and rife with abuse that it devolves into a game that requires subordination. For a thought experiment, consider what would happen to a typical officer worker who, without subversion or deception to hide her priorities, did the following:
- worked on projects she considers most important, regardless of her manager’s priorities,
- prioritized her long-term career growth over short-term assignments, and
- expressed high-yield, creative ideas regardless of their political ramifications.
These activities are good for society, because she becomes better at her job, and obviously for her. They’re even good for her company. However, this course of action is likely to get her fired. Certainly, there’s enough risk of that to invalidate the major benefit of being an employee, which is stability.
So, in truth, society pays people to be subordinate, and that’s a real problem. In theory, capitalist society pays for valuable work, but the people trusted to evaluate the work inevitably become a source of corruption as they demand personal loyalty (which is rarely repaid in kind) rather than productivity itself. However, the long-term effect of subordination is to cause creative atrophy. To quote Paul Graham, in “You Weren’t Meant to Have a Boss“:
If you’re not allowed to implement new ideas, you stop having them. And vice versa: when you can do whatever you want, you have more ideas about what to do. So working for yourself makes your brain more powerful in the same way a low-restriction exhaust system makes an engine more powerful.
I would take this even farther. I believe that, after a certain age and constellation of conditions, creativity can be lost effectively forever. People who keep their creativity up don’t lose it– and lifelong creative people seem to peak in their 50s or later, which should kill the notion that it’s a property of the young only– but people who fall into the typical corporate slog develop a mindset and conditioning that render them irreversibly dismal. It only seems to take a few years for this to happen. Protecting one’s creativity practically demands insubordination, making it almost impossible to win the corporate ladder and remain creative. This should explain quite clearly the lack of decent leadership our society exhibits.
We should offset this by finding a way to reward people for not subordinating. To make it clear, I’m not saying we should pay people not to work. In fact, that’s a terrible idea. Instead, we should find a repeatable, robust, and eventually universal way to reward people who work in non-subordinate, creative ways, thereby rewarding the skills that our society actually needs, instead of the mindless subordination that complacent corporations have come to expect. By doing this, we can forestall the silent but catastrophic loss that is the wholesale destruction of human creative capital.
“Instead, we should find a repeatable, robust, and eventually universal way to reward people who work in non-subordinate, creative ways, thereby rewarding the skills that our society actually needs, ”
How is this different form any other “we should…”? People have been trying to figure out ways to more effectively produce what people want for a long time. It’s a difficult problem. What exactly are you proposing that would be different from what has been tried?
Kickstarter is pointing in the right direction, but I didn’t want to focus on implementations just yet. That would be another post.
If the VC community became less incestuous (the fact that they all talk to each other about who’s hot, who’s not, and what terms to give, is a problem) and better distributed, that would be a step in the right direction.
Yeah, there are some start up funding start ups so to speak looking to change the way funding works. That’s definitely good. It still requires people dedicated to figuring out who deserves funding or not though. Which means there will always be some cap where the cost of finding the right people to invest in outweighs the gains. Like a lot of your ideas I think they could have some positive impact on a certain class of elite computer programmers, but not necessarily society changing.
I agree. Most of the changes in these posts only would affect software, creative hardware, and similar disciplines.
That being said, VC-istan, (if I may borrow the term and keep it for awhile), is horrible at figuring out companies with decent business models. Maybe if they stopped going for who’s “cool” or “hot” or whateverthefuck, they’d realize those hundreds of millions poured into Twitter (and other such shite) are NEVER going to generate a profit.
But these are business people. What does business concern them? They are more interested in hitting golf balls like drunken Scotsmen. With all respect to drunken and sober Scotsmen, and none to the VC-istan morons.
If “they” are anything like the people I worked with in IB I doubt they give a crap about profits. Once the IPO is done who cares.
People always say “they did XYZ” where “they” is just some abstract idea. “They” is made up of people, and the motivations of those people can usually be understood. Things usually happen for reasons rather then nonsensically, though those reasons may often be depressing if understandable.
By “they” I mean the VCs, angels, etc. I agree. There are reasons. They are depressing as hardly any of these startups have even a chance to bring in revenue, let alone make profit, let alone IPO.
I’m extremely pro-BI. I think it should replace most current welfare. However, I think we need to understand what it will and won’t do.
The median per capita income for working people over 25 is $32,140. Any BI would pretty much by definition be less then that. I don’t think its that controversial to say half of that. So let’s round to $16,000. For comparison purposes let’s assume this income is taxed just like lots of current welfare income gets taxed. I’ll assume you get left with $14,000. That is $1,166 a month.
I don’t need to tell you that won’t even pay for a studio apartment in NYC or Silicon Valley. Let alone food, medical insurance premiums (even with single payer), etc. Find roomies you say. Well, the closest thing I can think of that would be a conductive living situations is the “hacker hostels” profiled in the NYTimes. That cost $40 a night, or $1,200 a month.
So we can see how a basic income really isn’t going to get us where we need to be. It will help you live in podunk without working at the local Starbucks for rent money, but its not going to get you even the most bare bones of livings in places where things are happening.
So what BI will do is mostly allow people with very unique skills that can make money over the internet doing work mostly by themselves to get an apartment in Detroit and live of ramen noodles until maybe they hit it big with an Ipad game or something.
Many of the big problems, the stuff that isn’t just about getting eyeballs and ad revenue, usually requires capital to develop. You aren’t going to develop the driverless car in your garage. So you’re going to need investors. Which brings us right back where we started.
This isn’t to say a BI wouldn’t help, but the idea that with a BI all these smart kids can avoid the corporate grind and start companies isn’t true. The only way that could happen is if we decide that the BI certain people get will be higher then the BI other people get. However, I can already hear the progressive alarm bell going off.
BI will also allow people who are starving to eat. Ever think of that? Or does god forbid you such thoughts?
The primary health concern amongst the poor in first world countries is obesity.
Try again.
So according to you, we should just ignore the poor people who are starving to try to help the rich fat fucks who aren’t. Great morality there. It must come from god.
Poor people aren’t starving in the first world, so its a non issue. Go to poor neighborhoods, they are fat. In fact being thin is a sign of being upper class. Honey Boo Boo is what poor people look like.
The only people starving to death, which is an incredibly small number, are drug addicts and the mentally ill. Money isn’t going to help there, they already have access to the resources to feed themselves. If you go to a lot of poor people grocery stores they will be outside trying to sell their food stamps for cash.
I simply said starving not starving to death. If no one is starving in American right now (malnutrition technically) , then you should be able to at least provide some sort of evidence for your claim other than your own, baseless opinion.
http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/35ek9t/
Dude, do you actually interact with poor people? Have you ever been in poor neighborhoods? Talked to homeless people? Nobody is starving.
There is a problem with people who drug or drink a lot. And there are problems with people that are mentally ill (from chemical imbalance or trauma like PTSD). The problem there is whatever help you do give them ends up getting squandered or avoided. If you give a druggy food stamps he will just sell them for cash to buy drugs. If your mentally ill you may get thrown out of a shelter for harassing other people. However, if your a normal down on your luck person current public assistance programs pretty much ensure you will never experience anything resembling true poverty (the kind where you starve or die of disease or the elements).
Not in the cities. Rural poverty is another story. Besides, “poverty” is a relative term: slaves didn’t starve either, yet they owned nothing.
I’m sold on that argument. Even a really basic basic income would unconditionally set a lower bound on dignity of life in a society.
There is a catch however: basic income or no, one needs to pay for food and housing. If we don’t take care, housing prices will probably rise to the point of offsetting the benefits of basic income, just because the supply doesn’t match the demand.
I think it will need some regulation, or even the re-thinking of cities. (For instance, one reason housing is cheaper in Germany than in France, is because they concentrated homes in down-town, close to the work areas.)
It hasn’t in many other countries.
You mean, you have examples of countries with basic income where the price of housing didn’t rise accordingly? Which ones? I don’t know of even one country with actual basic income…
I was referring BI that has _not_ “unconditionally set a lower bound on dignity of life in a society,” however you’d even qualify such a broad and unsubstantiated statement.
Okay… so you were actually replying to opethbass87. Now it makes sense. Too bad the reply button is above the comment you want to reply to.
Yes. No worries. It gets a little confusing trying to follow the long lines even for me. It reminds me trying to follow really long nested blocks of code.
I liked “In the very long term, technological society will need to implement a basic income, as soon as full employment becomes untenable.”.
Any prior posts on this you could recommend?
From my stuff:
http://notes.kateva.org/2012/12/the-post-ai-era-is-also-era-of-mass.html
“Today, I’m not going to talk about basic income, because we’re probably a couple of decades before society absolutely needs one”
You mean behind. There are people starving in the US of fucking A right now. This might be your opinion, but I have to call you out on it. Bullshit.
“At least grading in school is fair. A professor as corrupt and partial in grading as the typical corporate manager would be fired– and professors don’t get fired often.”
More bullshit. My professor lost my midterm, which I did quite well on, IMO. The only solution was to drop the class or retake it. I dropped it, took another required course and come .01 short of cum laude by a teacher that said I wan’t in class enough to really understand the material (feminist philosophy) despite the fact that I got all A’s on all the papers. This is from Villanova, #1 non Ivy League Uni on the East for the last two, three decades. Attendance was not mentioned in the syllabus or the class. No, grading in school is far from fair. This comment is completely inaccurate in every single way. None of the professors, including the substitute who allegedly lost the midterm, were fired. My complaint was not even heard by the deans. I was one of half the class who had the same thing happen to them. I won’t even mention other bullshit pseudo-meritocracy.
And sorry to be so negative on this awesome article otherwise, but:
“However, when it comes to personal income, expectancy is completely meaningless, at least for us poors who need a month-to-month income to pay rent. Most people would rather have a guaranteed $100,000 per year than a 1-in-1000 shot (every year) at $500 million, with a 99.9% chance of no income, even though the latter deal has more expectancy in it.”
Yeah. It’s called life and it’s the real reason why people subordinate. You have not actually presented a solution to it. I can draw a parallel to people accepting plea bargains for crimes they didn’t commit but I won’t … um just did.
“I would take this even farther. I believe that, after a certain age and constellation of conditions, creativity can be lost effectively forever.”
I’m sorry Michael. With all due respect, while this maybe true from your viewpoint, it is an absolute falsity. I shall only point you to some of the great writers who did their best work later on in life, after a “constellation of conditions” whatever the fuck that means.
Love the article otherwise. Yes, I’m a harsh critic.
Hmm, I can see a scenario where it would seem that the “constellation of conditions” hold, while they don’t. Just imagine someone that submit at work, but (1) keep in mind that it’s just that, submission, (2) keep at doing creative whatever, even if it’s just a little, and (3) never give up.
On the other hand, there is a much, much easier way to resolve the cognitive dissonance: deluding yourself into thinking that creativity is bad. It won’t be formulated that way, of course. Most of the time, it will be more like “sounds cool, but too risky”, until the halo effect degrades it into “it won’t work”. Now that the thought is negative enough, one learns to avoid it altogether.
At that point, there is no more creativity to speak of. Worse, it can be seen as a threat that must be eliminated. Which spur even more negative thoughts to those who suffer such elimination. Now the cycle is complete.
By the way, I also think that similar mechanisms are at work in school, where one is rewarded for guessing the teacher’s password instead of being rewarded for genuinely trying to think. Despite what Michael says, this is probably worse than the corporate world, because the minds that suffer it are still young and malleable.
Now there are exceptions, of course. But those are just that: exceptions. Don’t be fooled by sampling effects, such as successful authors (you don’t see failures, nor the not-even-tried), or people you talk to over the internet (for instance, few corporate programmers talk on /r/programming or such).
I agree it is worse in education. But in the US, education is just for show anyway. You either teach yourself, or you’re fucked. With very few exceptions, usually coming at the masters and beyond level.